PHYS-10 · Principle

Why is my friend faster with a lower VO2max?

VO2max is only the ceiling. Speed also depends on how much of it you can hold for the race, how much speed each litre of oxygen buys, and how well those hold late in a long effort.

How the body works, agreed across the reviews below; a study entry shows what one experiment measured.

well supported, with open questions namedApplies to endurance events from minutes to hoursWell supported — the three determinants explain performance differences between athletes (two independent reviews, REF-092, REF-462; in 888 runners and cyclists VO2max explained 65-76% of between-athlete differences…

Practical Application

Why is my friend faster with a lower VO2max? VO2max is only the ceiling. Speed also depends on how much of it you can hold for the race, how much speed each litre of oxygen buys, and how well those hold late in a long effort.
What it means for training: a block may move any of the factors, though evidence that training moves fractional utilisation in trained athletes is limited (REF-986); the base picks the lever by what the athlete has been missing, not by a profile (SYNTH-42), and treats fresh test numbers as hour one, not hour four (SYNTH-32).
What it does not mean: that a profile names the limiter or predicts which factor will respond: what separates athletes need not be what changes within one (SYNTH-42).

Mechanism

VO2max and the lactate threshold fix the oxygen uptake that can be sustained, the "performance VO2", and efficiency, the least understood factor, turns it into speed or power (REF-092). Speed at the lactate threshold, which integrates all three, best predicted distance-running performance (REF-462).
Between athletes VO2max carried most of the difference in threshold power or speed and fractional utilisation little (REF-746, cross-sectional); in 16 highly trained cyclists time-trial power tracked muscle oxidative capacity (REF-470, B).
Profiles measured rested shift over long efforts (REF-195); in 112 professionals mean maximal power fell more after 45 than after 15 kJ/kg of prior work (REF-192, B+). Years of volume, long sessions with hard efforts and heavy strength may build resilience, on scant data (REF-141).

Common misreading

"VO2max decides the race"; "a lab profile tells me what to train".

Backs

SYNTH-42 "what separates athletes from each other need not be what changes within one" · SYNTH-42 "Between athletes is not within one" · SYNTH-32 "every threshold you prescribe against was measured rested"

Sources

Joyner & Coyle 2008 REF-092 · Paper ↗
Bassett & Howley 2000 REF-462 · Paper ↗
Maunder et al. 2021 REF-195 · Paper ↗
Jones & Kirby 2025 REF-141 · Paper ↗
REF-746 (B+)
REF-986 (C+)