REF-1015 · Sitko et al., 2022 · International Journal of Sports Physiology and Performance, · Paper · PubMed
In 46 road cyclists VO2max was predicted from best 5-minute power as 16.6 + 8.87 × W/kg, explaining 61–77% of the variance when taken from a field-style 5-minute test
Key Findings
Best 5-minute relative power predicted VO2max as 16.6 + 8.87 × W/kg; R² 95% credibility interval 0.61–0.77 when the power came from a separate 5-minute test.
46 road cyclists (age 38 ± 9 y, 71.4 ± 8.6 kg, measured VO2max 61.13 ± 9.05 mL/kg/min) did a graded exercise test and, 72 h later, a 5-minute maximal test.
Equation: VO2max = 16.6 + (8.87 × 5-minute relative power output).
5-minute relative power was the best explanatory variable: R² 95% credibility interval 0.81–0.88 using power from the graded test, 0.61–0.77 using the separate 5-minute test.
Practical Application
A best 5-minute power of 5.0 W/kg gives about 61 mL/kg/min by this equation — offer it as a rough estimate, as a range and never as a measured value.
Always pair it with the external check REF-1016: in another sample the same equation read 6.6 mL/kg/min low, with individual errors of ten or more.
Use the power itself to set training; the estimate is for curiosity and for the scale of a year-on-year change, not for small differences.
Limitations
One sample, no external validation within the paper; sex not stated in the abstract (abstract only was read).
The 5-minute test leaves roughly a quarter to 40% of the variance unexplained.