REF-1617 · Guo et al., 2024 · The Journal of Pediatrics · Paper · PubMed

Childhood aerobic fitness says little about aerobic fitness in mid-life: in 748 schoolchildren followed for 34 years, childhood cardiorespiratory fitness correlated r = 0.30 with young-adult and r = 0.16 with mid-adult fitness; a three-sentence abstract with no methods. From the abstract

Main caveat: Three-sentence abstract: no test, ages, retention, adjustment or intervals.
limited evidenceMeasured on non-athletes and recreational peopleRead from the abstract only

Guo and colleagues report how cardiorespiratory fitness measured in childhood persisted into adulthood in a cohort of 748 schoolchildren followed for 34 years. Childhood fitness correlated with fitness in young adulthood at r = 0.30 and in mid-adulthood at r = 0.16. The abstract frames adult fitness as important for surviving major chronic diseases and keeping good health; it gives no methods.

Participants

748 schoolchildren followed over 34 years. Ages, sex split, country and numbers retained are not in the abstract; the record's funding statement names the Childhood Determinants of Adult Health study and Australian Commonwealth, heart foundation and research council funders.

Protocol

Design: prospective cohort; childhood fitness against fitness in young and mid-adulthood.
Not in the abstract: the fitness tests, ages at each wave, retention, adjustment and statistics beyond the two correlations.

Key Results

Childhood cardiorespiratory fitness vs young-adult fitness: r = 0.30.
Childhood cardiorespiratory fitness vs mid-adult fitness: r = 0.16.
Size (our arithmetic): r = 0.30 means about 9% of the variance shared; r = 0.16, about 3%.

Practical Application

In 748 schoolchildren followed for 34 years, how fit someone was as a child explained very little of their aerobic fitness by mid-adulthood (r = 0.16, about 3% of the variance by our arithmetic), more in young adulthood (r = 0.30). For an adult who was a sporty child, the aerobic fitness of childhood is not a base that is still there; what they train now sets their fitness now (inference, consistent with PHYS-41).
The direction matches the pooled review REF-1616 (r = 0.38 for aerobic fitness), with a smaller figure here for the longest follow-up.
Not tested here: whether a fit childhood makes adult training easier to start or to respond to.

Limitations

Three-sentence abstract: no test, ages, retention, adjustment or intervals.
One cohort; correlations show stability of rank, not fitness retained.
Adult training between the waves is not described.
How this entry was checked and changed
Why this level

a cohort of ≥200 is B+ by design; one step down because the three-sentence abstract gives no fitness test, ages at each wave, number retained, adjustment or confidence intervals, so it is unknown how many of the 748 contribute to each correlation