REF-236 · San Millán, 2026 · Substack post

Rethinking Exercise Metabolism: From "Aerobic vs. Anaerobic" to Metabolic Equilibrium

Cweak evidence: opinion or lab dataMeasured on a mixed groupWritten before October 2026, being re-checked

Key Findings — Core Thesis

The binary "aerobic vs. anaerobic" model is fundamentally wrong — not because it is simple, but because it implies separation where there is integration and switching where there is continuity. Exercise metabolism is a single integrated system operating across a continuum, defined by whether metabolic equilibrium can be maintained between glycolytic production and mitochondrial clearance.

The Four Metabolic States

StateZonesLactateDescription
State 1 — Low Metabolic StressZone 1low and stable (the post's own figure is <1.5 mmol/L — not from a peer-reviewed source; not checked)System far below capacity. Low glycolytic flux, fat oxidation active, mitochondria unchallenged. Recovery value but insufficient stimulus for adaptation.
State 2 — Metabolic EquilibriumZone 2Stable (production = clearance)The most important boundary. Maximum aerobic stimulus while maintaining balance. Mitochondria working hard, Type I fibers near full recruitment, FATmax, mLOC at high capacity. Lactate shuttle in full equilibrium.
State 3 — Metabolic DriftZones 3–4Rising progressivelyGlycolytic flux exceeds mitochondrial processing capacity. Lactate accumulates, NAD⁺/NADH deteriorates, Type IIa recruited. Fat oxidation suppressed. Not "anaerobic" — still highly oxidative, but losing balance. Sustainable for minutes up to roughly an hour (the post's own framing; not from a peer-reviewed source). Corresponds to "threshold"/"critical power"/"FTP".
State 4 — Metabolic OverloadZone 5+Rapid accumulationMitochondria at ceiling (VO₂max). Type IIb fibers dominant. Glycolysis at near-max rates. Fat oxidation functionally irrelevant. Seconds to minutes duration. Incurs metabolic debt resolved only by oxidative recovery.

Key Mechanistic Insights

1. Glycolysis is always active:

From the first second of movement, at every intensity. The question is never "is glycolysis on?" but "can mitochondria match its output?"

2. Lactate = redox solution, not waste:

Pyruvate → lactate conversion regenerates NAD⁺, allowing glycolysis to continue when mitochondrial throughput is exceeded. Lactate also buffers intracellular acidity (carries proton out of cytosol).

3. mLOC (mitochondrial lactate oxidation complex):

Lactate enters mitochondria via MCT1, is converted back to pyruvate, and feeds directly into oxidative phosphorylation. When mLOC function is sufficient → equilibrium. When overwhelmed → drift → overload.

4. VO₂max is a ceiling, not a switch:

VO₂max reflects cardiorespiratory capacity. Lactate reflects metabolic function. Two athletes with identical VO₂max can have vastly different performance if one maintains equilibrium at a higher fraction of that ceiling. The ceiling of equilibrium, not the ceiling of oxygen consumption, is the central determinant of performance.

5. ATP-PC: the only truly anaerobic phase:

First seconds of maximal explosive effort (phosphocreatine → ATP). But recovery of ATP-PC is entirely oxidative — mitochondrial capacity determines repeatability of sprints.

6. Zone 2 redefined:

Not "easy training." It is the maximum intensity at which metabolic equilibrium is maintained. Maximum stimulus for: mitochondrial biogenesis, mLOC efficiency, lactate shuttle optimization, FATmax. The foundation of both endurance performance and metabolic health.

Practical Application

Zone 2 calibration: This is a conceptual framework from a non-peer-reviewed post (Level C): it argues Zone 2 must be defined by lactate stability (production = clearance), not HR or RPE alone, and treats lactate testing as the reference for finding the equilibrium boundary. The base's peer-reviewed threshold methodology is REF-173 (Jamnick 2020).
Performance prediction: The author's claim: the power at which equilibrium breaks (not VO₂max) predicts endurance race outcomes. For long endurance events, raising the equilibrium ceiling is then the primary objective — an inference from the framework, not a tested result.
Training zone logic: Zones are not arbitrary HR/power buckets but correspond to distinct metabolic states with different adaptation signals.
Fat oxidation strategy: The author's claim (not tested in this post): FATmax occurs at Zone 2 (State 2); above equilibrium, fat oxidation is progressively suppressed, so training above Z2 does not improve fat burning.
Recovery from high-intensity: The author's claim (not tested in this post): all metabolic debt (lactate clearance, PCr resynthesis, redox rebalancing) is resolved by the same mitochondria that sustain Z2, so investing in Z2 base improves recovery between intervals.
Sprint repeatability (surges): The author's claim (not tested in this post): ATP-PC recovery rate is proportional to mitochondrial capacity, so a better Z2 base → faster PCr restoration → more repeatable above-threshold efforts.

Limitations

Not peer-reviewed (Substack publication). Conceptual framework synthesizing existing research rather than presenting new experimental data. Author has commercial interests (training methodology, lab testing). Model simplifies continuous spectrum into discrete states. No novel quantitative data — value is in integration and reframing, not in discovery.

How this entry was checked and changed
Why this level

(mechanistic/expert opinion — downgraded from A)

Content correction 2026-09-27
No DOI, non-peer-reviewed source (Substack): the lactate figure (<1.5 mmol/L) and the "~1 h" duration are now labelled as the post's own, unverified figures; the practical lead states the Level C status and points to REF-173 for threshold methods.
Sport line "swimming, sprint" -> "general" (a conceptual framework, not a swimming or sprint source). Personal-plan phrasing ("5 h gravel events", "gravel surges") -> generic wording.
Cross-references to duplicate stubs repointed to their canonical entries (REF-200->REF-024); the stubs were emptied on 2026-09-27.
Resync 2026-09-28: Three practical bullets stated San Millán's Substack claims (fat burning above Z2, recovery, PCr restoration) as facts -> labelled as the author's untested claims.
2026-09-29: Journal and Type lines retyped honestly: the source is a Substack blog post (it exists — title and date confirmed on the author's Substack archive), not a pre-print. Level unchanged (C). Its URL is listed for the owner's approval, not attached.