REF-555 · Noordhof, Mulder, de Koning & Hopkins, 2016 · International Journal of Sports Physiology and Performance, Vol. · Paper
Race Factors Affecting Performance Times in Elite Long-Track Speed Skating
Protocol & Method (abstract)
Log-transformed performance times of elite long-track events analysed with a mixed linear model estimating percentage mean effects for altitude, barometric pressure, type of rink and competition importance
Coefficients of variation for residual venue-related differences and for within-athlete variability between races within clusters spanning ~8 days; effects and variability assessed with magnitude-based inference
Key Results (abstract)
Altitude: a 1000-m increase → very large mean performance improvement of 2.8% in juniors and 2.1% in seniors
Barometric pressure: +100 hPa → a moderate 1.1% reduction in performance for juniors; unclear effect for seniors
Open rinks (only juniors competed at them): very large 3.4% reduction in performance
Competition importance: small improvements at the more important competitions — 0.4% (juniors) and 0.3% (seniors)
After accounting for these effects, residual venue-related variability was still moderate to large
Within-athlete race-to-race variability (within cluster): 0.3-1.3%; a small difference between male (0.8%) and female juniors (1.0%), none between male and female seniors (both 0.6%)
Conclusion: skaters' variability is similar to that of athletes in other sports where air or water resistance limits speed; a performance enhancement of 0.1-0.4% by top-10 athletes is needed to increase medal-winning chances by 10%
Practical Application
Elite long-track race times: every 1000 m of rink altitude was worth 2.8% (juniors) / 2.1% (seniors), an open rink cost 3.4%, +100 hPa of pressure cost 1.1% in juniors, and skaters' own race-to-race variability was only 0.3-1.3% (seniors 0.6%) — so a top-10 skater needs a 0.1-0.4% gain to raise medal chances by 10%. Venue is a performance variable of the same order as a season's progress
Speed skater: personal bests belong to high-altitude indoor rinks; compare times between venues only after correcting for altitude/pressure. Inference from the model
Analogy for a masters cyclist: aerodynamically limited sports gain from low air density (altitude, low pressure) — the same physics as drafting/position. Inference, not tested here
Smallest worthwhile change: with within-athlete variability of ~0.6% in elite seniors, "improvements" smaller than that are noise unless repeated
Limitations
Specific to long-track speed skating; transfer is limited
Retrospective analysis (associations of conditions, not a controlled experiment); the number of races/athletes is not in the abstract
The open-rink effect was estimated in juniors only
How this entry was checked and changed
Why this level
regraded 2026-09-27 from A: retrospective correlational analysis of competition results; the number of races/athletes is not stated in the abstract
Content correction 2026-09-27
Added every number from the abstract (2.8%/2.1% per 1000 m altitude, 1.1% per 100 hPa, 3.4% open rinks, 0.4%/0.3% importance, 0.3-1.3% within-athlete variability, 0.1-0.4% for +10% medal chance)
"High-altitude rinks (Calgary, Salt Lake) are significantly faster" -> venue names not in the abstract; removed
Level A -> B (retrospective correlational analysis, sample size not stated); Tier restated to include juniors; byline corrected to the DOI record's authors (Noordhof, Mulder, de Koning & Hopkins)