REF-816 · Filipas et al., 2021 · Journal of Strength and Conditioning Research, Vol. · Paper · PubMed

Pacing Profiles of Olympic and IAAF World Championship Long-Distance Runners

B+moderate evidenceMeasured on world-class athletesWritten before October 2026, being re-checked

The study took 1,000-m split times for 394 men and women racing in 5,000-m and 10,000-m finals at 5 Olympic and IAAF World Championships, plus each runner's best time over the previous 32 months. Over 5,000 m, runners grouped by finishing place paced in similar ways, and women ran more evenly than men — possibly a sex difference.

Over 10,000 m, men's and women's pacing was closer; the main difference was that in the men's races more runners managed to hang on to the leaders into the final stages. The correlation between recent bests and finishing result was large or very large, and the fastest finishers came closest to their bests.

The authors conclude that to win a medal, runners should sit near the front from the start.

Participants

394 men and women, finalists in 5,000- and 10,000-m finals at 5 championships (Olympic Games and IAAF World Championships). The sex split is not given in the abstract.

Protocol

Times for each 1,000-m split in each final.
Athletes' best times from the previous 32 months.
Pacing profiles compared by finishing position, event and sex; correlations between recent best times and result.

Key Results

5,000 m: similar pacing profiles across finishing-position groups; women adopted a more even pacing behaviour than men (a possible sex-based difference).
10,000 m: men and women paced more alike than over 5,000 m; more runners managed to hang on to the leaders into the final stages in the men's 10,000 m, and likewise in the men's 5,000 m.
The correlation between athletes' best times over the previous 32 months and their finishing result was large or very large; the fastest finishers came closest to their previous best times.
Authors' conclusion: whatever the differences between events, a long-distance runner who wants a medal should sit near the front right from the start.

Practical Application

"In a championship 5,000 or 10,000 m, can I sit back and kick?" — in 394 Olympic and World Championship finalists, finishing position did not come with a different pacing shape in the 5,000 m, and recent best times predicted results strongly, with the fastest finishers running closest to their bests; the authors conclude that to win a medal a runner must stay close to the front from the beginning.
Recent form predicts championship results: use the last 32 months of best times, not a single old personal best, to set realistic race aims.
Women's 5,000 m finals were more evenly paced than men's; expect more of the men's field to hang on to the leaders into the late stages.
Inference, not tested here: for a runner whose aim is a time rather than a medal, the advice to start at a realistic pace and stay in a pack (REF-810) fits better than following the leaders.

Limitations

Championship finals only; tactical races differ from paced or time-trial races.
1,000-m splits smooth out shorter surges.
Descriptive; the sex split and effect sizes of the pacing differences are not given in the abstract.
Written from the abstract and record metadata only (full text not read).
How this entry was checked and changed
Why this level

large observational dataset, n=394 finalists