REF-822 · Jones et al., 2021 · Journal of Applied Physiology, Vol. · Paper · PubMed

Physiological demands of running at 2-hour marathon race pace

Blimited evidenceMeasured on world-class athletesWritten before October 2026, being re-checked

Sixteen world-class male distance runners completed an incremental treadmill test (VO2peak, O2 cost of submaximal running, lactate threshold and lactate turn-point) and, on a separate day, a track test running continuously at 21.1 km/h — the speed of a 2-hour marathon.

VO2peak was 71.0 ± 5.7 mL/kg/min; lactate threshold and turn-point occurred at 18.9 ± 0.4 and 20.2 ± 0.6 km/h (83 ± 5% and 92 ± 3% of VO2peak). Seven athletes reached a steady-state VO2 at 21.1 km/h outdoors; their O2 cost was 191 ± 19 mL/kg/km, so the pace required an absolute VO2 of about 4.0 L/min, 94 ± 3% of VO2peak.

On these values a sub-2-hour marathon would require a 59 kg runner to sustain about 4.0 L/min, or 67 mL/kg/min.

Participants

n=16 world-class male distance runners: age 29 ± 4 yr, height 1.72 ± 0.04 m, mass 58.9 ± 3.3 kg.

Protocol

Laboratory incremental treadmill test: VO2peak, O2 cost of submaximal running, lactate threshold and lactate turn-point.
Separate day: outdoor track test, running continuously at 21.1 km/h, with O2 uptake measured.

Key Results

MeasureValue
VO2peak (laboratory)71.0 ± 5.7 mL/kg/min
Lactate threshold18.9 ± 0.4 km/h (83 ± 5% VO2peak)
Lactate turn-point20.2 ± 0.6 km/h (92 ± 3% VO2peak)
Athletes reaching steady-state VO2 at 21.1 km/h outdoorsSeven of 16
O2 cost at 21.1 km/h (those seven)191 ± 19 mL/kg/km
Absolute VO2 required at 21.1 km/h~4.0 L/min
Fraction of VO2peak at 21.1 km/h94 ± 3%
Modelled requirement for a sub-2-hour marathon in a 59 kg runner: a sustained VO2 of about 4.0 L/min, or 67 mL/kg/min.

Practical Application

In sixteen world-class male distance runners, 2-hour marathon pace (21.1 km/h) cost 191 ± 19 mL/kg/km of oxygen, which meant running at 94 ± 3% of VO2peak — above their average lactate turn-point (92 ± 3% of VO2peak) — and only seven of the sixteen could even hold a steady VO2 at that speed. Marathon pace is set by three things together: how much oxygen each kilometre costs (economy), how big the engine is (VO2max) and how high a fraction of it can be held (threshold); even the best runners in the world were at the edge of all three.
The lab and field numbers disagree in an instructive way: lactate turn-point sat at 20.2 km/h, below 21.1 km/h. Inference, not tested here: marathon pace sits at or just under the turn-point for most well-trained runners, so a recreational runner whose goal pace lies above their threshold pace has set an unrealistic goal.
Economy is a lever of the same order as VO2max here. Not from this paper; the base's own practice: economy is trained through heavy strength work (SYNTH-44) and bought through advanced footwear (REF-719).

Limitations

Sixteen world-class men only; no women and no recreational runners.
The O2 cost at race pace comes from the seven athletes who reached a steady state; the other nine could not be assigned a value this way.
One outdoor session; wind, drafting and footwear during the track test are not described in the abstract.
The sub-2-hour requirement is a calculation from these values, not an observed race.
Written from the abstract and record metadata only (full text not read).
How this entry was checked and changed
Why this level

cross-sectional measurement study, n=16, with the key outdoor O2 cost available in only seven athletes