REF-1000 · Vesterinen et al., 2015 · Scandinavian Journal of Medicine & Science in Sports, Vol. · Paper · PubMed

Predictors of individual adaptation to high-volume or high-intensity endurance training in recreational endurance runners

Blimited evidenceMeasured on recreational to trained athletesWritten before October 2026, being re-checked

After a first 8-week preparation period, 37 recreational endurance runners were matched into a high-volume training group (HVT) and a high-intensity training group (HIT). During the next 8-week period HVT increased running volume and HIT increased training intensity.

HIT improved peak treadmill running speed; HVT did not change significantly; individual variation was large in both. Baseline nocturnal high-frequency power of HRV related negatively to the individual change in HVT and positively in HIT. The authors conclude that nocturnal HRV can be used to individualise endurance training in recreational runners.

Participants

37 recreational endurance runners, matched into HVT and HIT after an 8-week preparation period. Group sizes, sex, age and baseline fitness are not given in the abstract.

Protocol

Preparation: first 8-week period, common to all.
Intervention: next 8-week period — HVT increased running training volume; HIT increased training intensity. The abstract gives no amounts.
Measured before and after the training periods: endurance performance characteristics, heart rate variability (HRV), serum hormone concentrations.
Outcome reported: peak treadmill running speed (RSpeak). Predictor reported: baseline nocturnal high-frequency power of HRV (HFPnight).

Key Results

RSpeak: HIT improved 3.1 ± 2.8% (P < 0.001); no significant change in HVT (0.5 ± 1.9%).
Individual range: HVT -2.8 to 4.1%; HIT 0-10.2%.
Baseline HFPnight vs individual change in RSpeak: negative in HVT (r = -0.74, P = 0.006), positive in HIT (r = 0.63, P = 0.039).
Individuals with lower HFP showed greater change in HVT; individuals with higher HFP responded well in HIT.
The abstract reports no predictive result for the hormone measures or the endurance characteristics.

Practical Application

"Should I add volume or intensity — can anything tell me in advance?" In 37 recreational runners matched into a volume group and an intensity group for 8 weeks (between-person correlations inside each group; nobody was assigned by the marker), baseline nocturnal HRV related to the gain in peak treadmill speed in opposite directions: lower HRV went with larger gains from added volume (r = -0.74), higher HRV with larger gains from added intensity (r = 0.63). On average the intensity group improved 3.1 ± 2.8% and the volume group did not change significantly (0.5 ± 1.9%).
What this is: a candidate sorter found after the fact in two small groups. What it is not: a trial in which athletes were sorted by HRV and then did better.
The marker is nocturnal high-frequency power, not a morning reading and not a determinant profile (VO2max, economy, threshold); the abstract reports no such profile as a predictor.
Inference, not tested here: a recreational runner with low resting HRV may be a poorer candidate for an intensity block than for a volume block.
Different paper from REF-438 (same first author, HRV-guided daily prescription).

Limitations

Correlations within two small groups; the number of runners behind each correlation is not in the abstract.
No control group and no repeat, so individual "response" includes test-to-test variation (REF-430).
Not prospective: the HRV rule was derived from, not tested on, these runners.
The size of the volume and intensity increases is not in the abstract; recreational runners only.
Written from the abstract and record metadata only (full text not read).
How this entry was checked and changed
Why this level

matched groups, n=37 in total, no control; the headline finding is a correlation inside each group