REF-850 · Antón et al., 2007 · International Journal of Sports Medicine, Vol. · Paper · PubMed

Flat and Uphill Climb Time Trial Performance Prediction in Elite Amateur Cyclists

Blimited evidenceMeasured on highly trained athletesWritten before October 2026, being re-checked

Eighteen elite amateur road cyclists of similar time-trial ability were measured for frontal area, maximal strength and power, quadriceps cross-sectional area, basal testosterone and cortisol, and maximal workload (Wmax) in a laboratory test, then rode two outdoor all-out time trials: 14 km on a flat road (0.2% average gradient) and a 6.7-km climb (6% average gradient).

Flat time trial time correlated with absolute Wmax (r = -0.90) and frontal area (r = -0.73). Uphill time correlated with free testosterone (r = -0.75) and Wmax per kilogram (r = -0.66).

The authors conclude that flat time-trial performance depends mainly on absolute maximal workload and anthropometry, and uphill performance on maximal workload relative to body mass and higher anabolic-androgenic activity.

Participants

n=18 elite-level amateur road cyclists (abstract: "Eighteen elite level amateur road cyclists"), 21.1 +/- 3.8 yrs, homogeneous in time-trial performance (coefficient of variation 2.9-5.2 %). Sex is not stated in the abstract.

Protocol

Measures: frontal area (FA), maximal strength, power, quadriceps femoris cross-sectional area, basal serum total testosterone, free testosterone (FT) and cortisol.
Progressive discontinuous maximal cycling test in the laboratory: maximal (Wmax) and submaximal workload.
Two all-out outdoor time trials on separate days (duration range 1049-1251 s): a 14-km flat road (average gradient 0.2 %) and a 6.7-km uphill climb (average gradient 6 %).

Key Results

Time trialVariable correlated with timerp
14-km flatWmax (absolute)-0.90< 0.01-0.001
14-km flatFrontal area-0.73< 0.01-0.001
6.7-km uphillFree testosterone-0.75< 0.05-0.001
6.7-km uphillWmax per kg-0.66< 0.05-0.001
Negative r = the higher the variable, the shorter (faster) the time.
The abstract gives no correlations for strength, muscle area, cortisol or submaximal workload.

Practical Application

In eighteen elite amateur road cyclists, flat 14-km time-trial time tracked absolute maximal power (r = -0.90), while 6.7-km uphill time tracked maximal power per kilogram (r = -0.66) and free testosterone (r = -0.75) (cross-sectional). For a flat time trial raw watts decide; for a climb it is watts per kilo.
Train and taper for the course: a heavier, powerful rider is favoured on the flat, a lighter one with the same power per kilo on the climb; judge a rider's prospects by the matching metric.
Inference, not tested here: frontal area correlated with faster flat times (r = -0.73), which reads as bigger riders also having more absolute power rather than drag helping; it is not a reason to ignore position.
Not from this paper; the base's own practice: free testosterone is not a training lever; do not recommend hormone testing or manipulation from this entry. Body-mass changes for climbing carry their own risks (energy availability).

Limitations

Cross-sectional correlations in eighteen riders of similar ability; no causal inference.
Efforts lasted 1049-1251 s; the determinants of a long flat time trial may differ.
Sex not stated; hormone values are single basal samples.
Written from the abstract and record metadata only (full text not read).
How this entry was checked and changed
Why this level

cross-sectional correlational, n=18