SYNTH-94 · Guide

Running injuries

Red flags and bone-like pain: no running, a clinician, a symptom-free return; a sore tendon: swap the provoking load, then rebuild under a pain limit over months; front-of-knee and heel pain: a clinician's exercise, taping and education first; every return gated by symptoms; in runners only supervised hip-and-core work and soft-landing retraining prevented injury; no load rule is safe; never name the injury

Main caveat: Transfer. The Achilles, knee and heel guides are written for patients in general, the gluteal trial is in middle-aged and older women, the hamstring trial in…
limited, mixed evidenceMostly from non-athletes to highly trained athletes

The question it answers

A runner reports pain — Achilles, shin, knee, heel, hip, buttock, thigh, calf or foot — or asks how not to get hurt. Do they stop and see someone, keep running with one change, or swap running for something that does not hurt while a clinician leads the loading; when and how does running come back; and what is worth doing to prevent the next injury?

Short answer: red flags and bone-like pain go to a clinician with no running; otherwise find and take out what changed, apply the rule for the tissue (bone symptom-free, tendon within a pain scale, knee and heel with a clinician's first-line package), keep fitness on what does not hurt, and come back on symptoms, never on a date.

The assistant repeats what the athlete reports ("pain along the inner edge of the shin"), never names a condition, and uses a clinician's diagnosis as given (SYNTH-73).

What this guide owns and what it leaves

Owns (decided here)Leaves to
The runner's first questions, the rule by tissue (bone, tendon, knee and heel, muscle), what to keep doing and the clinician's usual first line by injuryThe cross-sport triage, the never-name-a-diagnosis rule, the two-week rule and HYROX niggles → SYNTH-73; pain on the bike → SYNTH-92
The runner's bone-stress sites, added to SYNTH-73's red flagsLayoffs, illness and the return after a break → SYNTH-36; the ramp and the deload → SYNTH-29; the long run → SYNTH-84
Return to running after an injury: which gates are written down and which are practiceFoot strike → SYNTH-86; step rate → SYNTH-55; strength for runners → SYNTH-44; new runners → SYNTH-75
What prevents running injuries and what does not, and the honest status of load rulesThe REDs screen → SYNTH-54; isometric holds → SYNTH-88; soreness after new work, which is not injury → SYNTH-23

Default — the decision, in order (what to prescribe first)

Not from a study; the base's own practice for the order of questions, the ≤3/10 ceiling and the two-week rule; the sources say what each step rests on:

1

Red flags first (list below). Any one → no running, a clinician, no "easy version". SYNTH-73 owns the list; the runner's bone sites are sharpened here (REF-1379, A-, abstract).

2

Repeat what they report, then ask: exactly where; when it hurts (first steps in the morning, the start of a run, building through the run, afterwards, at rest or at night); since when; what changed in the weeks before (a run much longer than recent ones, more hills, speed work or racing, new shoes or a drop change, a new surface); whether it has happened before; how they are eating for the training and, for women, whether periods have changed.

Why these: a previous injury is the best-supported warning sign — a previous running injury in runners over about 20 km a week (moderate quality) and a previous non-running injury in lower-volume, mostly novice runners (high quality), with no risk model able to predict who gets hurt (REF-1387, A-); in 2,378 event runners an injury in the previous year went with about twice the odds of a new one (OR 2.21, 95% CI 1.84-2.65; REF-1385, A); bone stress injuries were about twice as common in women (REF-1388, A-) and accumulated with triad-related factors (REF-1392, B).

The questions themselves are practice.

3

Bone-like pain → no running. Walking only if it is pain-free; a clinician grades the site and the risk; the return is symptom-free (REF-1383, C+; Return section below).

4

Tendon-like pain — the Achilles, the sit bone, the outer hip (the guideline below is for the Achilles; at the sit bone and outer hip it is a transfer, and the outer hip has its own trial, see the table): swap the load that provokes it for one that does not, bring it back gradually under a pain scale, and start progressive loading for at least 12 weeks with a clinician, reassessed at 3 months (REF-1380, A — by the guideline's own account the loading advice rests on clinical expertise and the pain numbers on expert opinion; the 12 weeks is its working group's choice, not a graded conclusion).

Running that stays within the pain limit and is no worse the next morning is compatible with it (REF-628, B+: one trial of 38, not a non-inferiority test). The ceiling the assistant gives is ≤3/10 — the base's own practice (SYNTH-73), more conservative than the 5/10 in that trial and the guideline's 0-5/10.

5

Front-of-knee pain: cut the load that provoked it; once a clinician has diagnosed it, knee-targeted exercise therapy with hip exercise as needed and education underneath is the first line (REF-1381, A-), and in the one trial of runners education on symptoms and load alone did as well (REF-917, B+) — give both.

6

Heel pain on the first steps: taping, plantar-fascia stretching and education on shoes and load, together for about 4-6 weeks, then the clinician's next step (REF-1382, A-).

7

Keep fitness on a pain-free substitute and keep some intensity in it (healthy-runner data, a transfer; "Keeping fitness" below). Offer it rather than wait to be asked (practice).

8

Not improving within about two weeks of sensible changes, or recurring → a clinician (SYNTH-73's rule, practice). A clinician treating an Achilles reassesses at 3 months (REF-1380) and one treating front-of-knee pain after at least 6 weeks (REF-1381); the assistant's two weeks is the point to involve one, not a verdict on treatment.

9

Promise nothing — no date, no prevention, no safe load. The assistant's own class of intervention, risk-factor advice, did not prevent injuries in a large trial (REF-1385, A).

When to stop running and see a clinician

SYNTH-73's red flags apply unchanged: night pain, rapid swelling, a "pop" or giving way, fever or feeling unwell with the pain, pain not tied to load, numbness or weakness that persists or returns, pain that changes the movement or climbs during the session, and bone pain with missed periods, low libido or a previous bone injury.

No paper tested a red-flag list as a screen; the runner-specific signs below are practice unless a source is given, each meaning no running and a clinician, never a diagnosis:

Possible bone stress: pain at one spot on a bone; impact pain that builds through the run; pain on walking, at rest or at night.Take it most seriously at the groin or front of the hip, the front of the shin, the top of the midfoot and the outer edge of the forefoot: across 76 studies and 2,974 bone stress injuries in athletes, treatment complications were most frequent at the femoral neck, tarsal navicular, anterior tibial shaft and fifth metatarsal (REF-1379, A-, abstract; where each bone's pain is felt is the entry's inference).Deep buttock, sacral or pelvic pain with impact belongs here too (practice: no entry ranks the pelvis or sacrum; REF-1379's abstract gives no sacral figure and puts the pubic bone among the fewest complications; REF-3498 notes that pelvic and sacral injuries lie outside its tibial review and behave differently).
Bone pain in a woman, or with energy or menstrual signs: bone stress injuries were about twice as common in women (risk ratio for men 0.52, 95% CI 0.36-0.76; REF-1388, A-, mostly adolescent and collegiate runners, so the direction transfers and the size does not); in 259 active girls and young women, 10.8% had a bone stress injury overall, 15-21% of those with a given single factor (whatever else they had) and 30-46% with some combinations of 12 h or more of exercise a week, a BMI under 21.0, a bone-density Z-score under −1.0, dietary restraint and a leanness sport (REF-1392, B, abstract, small subgroups).REDs is a physician's diagnosis (REF-341, A); screen with SYNTH-54.
A sudden "kick" or "pop" at the back of the heel or calf, or being unable to rise on the toes (practice).
A sudden grab at the back of the thigh with bruising, a gap or a limp (practice).
A swollen knee, inner-knee pain, locking or giving way (practice; the base holds no running entry on them).
Heel pain with numbness, tingling, night pain, swelling or fever (practice).
Never mask pain to train (SYNTH-73).For a bone stress injury the leading bone group allows analgesics or anti-inflammatories only briefly (sooner than 7 days) and only for pain at rest or at night (REF-1383, C+); the Achilles guideline advises caution with anti-inflammatories because they blunt the pain that steers the load (REF-1380); in 89 ultramarathon runners acute kidney injury followed ibuprofen in 52% against 34% on placebo, a difference whose confidence interval includes zero (REF-892, A-).

Decision table by injury

"(practice)" marks a call that is not from a study; the base's own practice. Every first-line cell is what a clinician usually starts with once they have made the diagnosis; the assistant offers it as such, never as its own treatment.

What the athlete reportsClinician now ifMay keep doing while it settlesFirst line, with a clinician — what the base shows (refId, level, key number)Return to running
Pain at one spot on a bone, building through the run, on walking or at night (front of the shin, top of the foot, outer forefoot, groin, buttock)Always; no runningPain-free cycling or deep-water running; walking only if pain-free; cross-training to keep fitness is the leading group's advice (REF-1383), the modality is practiceLoad reduced first (partial or non-weight bearing) until symptoms settle; painkillers only briefly and only for pain at rest or at night (REF-1383, C+, abstract, low-risk tibial and metatarsal shaft injuries); the clinician grades site and risk — the complication-prone sites are the femoral neck, tarsal navicular, anterior tibial shaft and fifth metatarsal (REF-1379, A-); fuelling and periods checked (REF-1392, B; SYNTH-54)After 5 consecutive pain-free days of daily activity; volume before speed; no symptoms during, after or the next day (REF-1383, C+, untested); for the tibia, five criteria first and alternate-day walk-run (REF-3498, C+, level IV); pooled study means 44 days for the posteromedial tibia (95% CI 27-61), 56 for the fibula (13-100), 107 for the femoral neck (79-135) and 127 for the navicular (102-151), with more than 90% returning (REF-1379, A-) — averages across athletes, not a date
Achilles stiff and sore in the morning or after sitting, sore at the start of runsA sudden kick or pop, cannot rise on the toes, rapid swelling, night pain (practice)A swap first — swimming, cycling, a cross-trainer or walking for pain above the heel, swimming or cycling for pain where the tendon meets the heel bone (REF-1380, expert opinion); running comes back gradually and may continue only within the pain limit (≤3/10, practice), no worse the next morning and not rising week to week (REF-628)Education, a temporary swap of the provoking load, a gradual return steered by a pain scale and progressive calf strengthening for at least 12 weeks, reassessed at 3 months; any active treatment beat wait-and-see at 3 months, very low certainty (REF-1380, A guideline, GRADE low to very low, the loading advice expert opinion); heavy slow resistance matched eccentric training at 12 and 52 weeks with compliance 92% vs 78% (REF-626, A-, 58 patients); continued running up to 5/10 showed no evidence of a difference from rest in 38 patients (not a non-inferiority test), with rest numerically ahead at 12 months (REF-628, B+); isometric holds are not a same-day painkiller (REF-1148, B; SYNTH-88)Months, not weeks: full symptom-free loading only after a few months of active treatment, and a return within days went with more recurrence; the working group rebuilds towards 5 km over 6-8 weeks once daily activity is within the limits, and suggests keeping single-leg calf work about three times a week afterwards; 23-37% still have symptoms years later and 85% of athletes return to sport (REF-1380, expert opinion and very low to low evidence)
Front of the knee: stairs, squats, sitting long, downhillSwelling, locking, giving way (practice; swelling and giving way are SYNTH-73's)Shorter, flatter runs within the pain limit; cycling if pain-free (practice)Knee-targeted exercise therapy (short-term pain SMD 1.16, 95% CI 0.66-1.66, high certainty), hip exercise added as needed, education underneath everything; prefabricated foot orthoses (OR 4.31, low certainty), taping and running retraining (never adequately tested, graded "low") as add-ons by need (REF-1381, A-, trial populations not described, not runner-specific, no trial past 3 months); in 69 runners education on symptoms and training load alone did as well over 20 weeks as education plus exercise or plus gait retraining (REF-917, B+); in runner trials retraining, medial-wedged orthoses, exercise and osteopathic manipulation cut short-term pain at very low to low certainty (REF-1393, A-, abstract)By symptoms (practice); no source gives return criteria
"Will a knee brace help in my marathon?"——Braces lowered new kneecap pain in two small trials of recruits and young athletes in 6-8 weeks of very heavy training (RR 0.40, 95% CI 0.22-0.73, low certainty), and the authors advise against widespread bracing outside such settings; no trial tested a brace for existing pain or in a race (REF-1386, A-)Nothing new on race day: a brace a clinician suggested is worn in training first (practice)
Inner edge of the shin, diffuse, tender along a stretch rather than at one spotOne tender spot on the bone, front-of-shin pain, pain at rest or at night (→ bone row)Reduced running if mild and within the pain limit; otherwise a substitute (practice)After a clinician's diagnosis, a graded running programme; adding calf stretching and strengthening or a sports compression stocking did not change the time to complete it in 74 athletes (REF-975, B+, no untreated control)The clinician's graded programme; 18.9% did not complete it (REF-975)
Heel pain on the first steps in the morning or after sittingNumbness or tingling, night pain, swelling, fever, pain after a fall (practice)Reduced running within the pain limit; break up long standing (the guide's expert advice, REF-1382)Taping (first-step pain SMD 0.47 at 1 week), plantar-fascia stretching (SMD 1.21 against radial shockwave, short term) and individualised education — comfortable, supportive shoes with a heel-to-toe drop, no barefoot walking or flat unsupportive shoes until it has gone, no rapid training changes, pain-monitoring — together for about 4-6 weeks; then shockwave, then custom orthoses (REF-1382, A-: one moderate trial each for taping and stretching, the education untested, no runner subgroup, a condition the authors describe as mainly of sedentary adults); calf stretching showed no effect (REF-1382); heel raises were ahead of stretching at 3 months only, in 48 patients who were not runners (REF-920, A-) — untested at the guide's bar, not refutedLoad-managed; no tested return (practice)
Outer knee, starting at a set distance, worse downhillSwelling, locking, giving wayShorter, flatter runs within the pain limit (practice)The clinician's choice: no cause, weak hip abductors included, and no treatment is established (REF-919, B+, a 2012 review); hip strengthening is a common clinical choice, not an established treatment (not from the base)By symptoms (practice)
Deep buttock or sit-bone pain; sitting hurts; worse uphill or with speedSudden pain with bruising; pain or numbness down the leg (SYNTH-73); buttock pain with impact (→ bone row)Flat, easy running within the pain limit; no hills, sprints, lunges or deep hip-flexion stretches early on (practice; that deep hip flexion presses the tendon against the sit bone is the review authors' proposal, REF-1389)Nothing proven: 12 studies, 2 small RCTs, every outcome very low certainty; shockwave beat a 6-week multimodal programme in one trial of 40 professional athletes (REF-1389, B+); the authors' pragmatic advice is to try first what works in other tendinopathies; in the base that is progressive tendon loading under a clinician (our reading, a transfer from REF-1380 and REF-626)By symptoms; no study (practice)
Outer hip; lying on that side hurtsGroin pain or pain with impact (→ bone row); night painRunning within the pain limit; avoid positions that press the outer hip, such as lying on that side (practice; the trial's education covered compression, and its list of positions sits in an appendix not read, REF-1390)Education on tendon load plus targeted exercise, 14 sessions over 8 weeks: global success 77% at 8 weeks against 58% after one corticosteroid injection and 29% with wait-and-see (number needed to treat 2.0 against wait-and-see), and 78% vs 57% vs 52% at 52 weeks (REF-1390, A; 204 adults aged 35-70, 82% women, not runners — a transfer)By symptoms (practice); the trial says nothing about running load
A sudden grab at the back of the thigh while running fastAlways, for the diagnosis and the rehabilitation plan; bruising, a gap or a limp → promptly (practice)Pain-free cycling or walking (practice)Clinician-led rehabilitation from about day 3 — hamstring strengthening including eccentric work, and graded running drills — progressed with pain up to 4/10 allowed: clearance a median 17 vs 15 days with pain-free progression (P = .37), 15% more knee-flexor strength regained, 2 reinjuries in each group by 6 months (REF-1391, A-, 43 men, team sports); afterwards, programmes including the Nordic hamstring exercise halved hamstring injuries across several sports (REF-766, A)Clearance required no pain on palpation, on stretch, in a maximal contraction and in a full sprint (REF-1391); the 4/10 applied to rehabilitation exercise, not to running through pain
A sudden "pop" or grab in the calfCannot rise on the toes, a large swelling, a kick at the back of the heel → promptly (practice)Pain-free cross-training (practice)The clinician's; no entry in the baseNo return study (practice)
An ankle sprain, or ankle pain that keeps coming backCannot walk four steps, or bone tenderness at the specific points → an X-ray (Ottawa rules, 97.6% sensitivity, REF-1022, A)Exercise started in the first week improved function at weeks 1 and 2 against rest, ice, compression and elevation, with no more pain, swelling or re-injury (REF-1024, A-)A brace or tape plus an exercise programme, supervised exercise before passive treatments, care with anti-inflammatories (REF-1025, B+)On criteria in five domains — pain, ankle impairments, the athlete's own perception, sensorimotor control, sport performance — not on days (REF-1023, C+)
Sore legs the day after a new, hilly or downhill run, easing over days—Whatever is comfortableSoreness after unaccustomed, mostly eccentric work appears the day after and fades over days; it is not an injury (PHYS-23, established; running, above all downhill, damages muscle more than cycling, PHYS-22, established; SYNTH-23)Once it has eased (practice)

Return to running — which gates are written down and which are practice

Bone: symptom-free, and the only return with written criteria, for the tibia only. After a tibial bone stress injury a scoping review names five things to address before running — bony tenderness, pain-free walking, radiological healing if the injury is high-risk, strength and loading tests, contributing factors — then an individual walk-run return, distance before speed, gated by symptoms (REF-3498, C+: level IV evidence, no study compared return approaches).For low-risk tibial and metatarsal shaft injuries the leading bone group's load rule is that the right load causes no symptoms during, after or the day after loading, at every stage; running restarts once daily activity has been pain-free for 5 consecutive days, volume before speed (REF-1383, C+, abstract; the authors say it "requires further scientific validation").So pain-free is the rule for bone, not ≤3/10. Mechanism (principle, not this athlete): a bone stress injury is repeated loading outpacing repair (PHYS-37, established principle; the injury mechanism is the prevailing theory), which is why pain during loading reads as damage running ahead of repair (inference, the entry's).The clinician owns imaging, grading and clearance; REF-1379's times are averages across athletes, never a date.
Tendon: a stated pain scale, tested once. The one trial allowed pain up to 5/10 during activity, settled by the next morning and not rising week to week, and found no evidence of a difference from rest in 38 patients, all on the same tendon rehabilitation (REF-628, B+); the Achilles guideline's working group puts sports load at 0-5/10, clearly less afterwards and the next morning, and says a full symptom-free return takes a few months (REF-1380, expert opinion).The assistant gives ≤3/10 (practice, SYNTH-73). Tendon stiffens under high-strain loading over weeks to months (PHYS-38, established), which fits months rather than weeks (inference).
Muscle strain: a pain limit tested once, in rehabilitation exercise. Up to 4/10 during supervised rehabilitation did not slow clearance in 43 men, and clearance itself required no pain (REF-1391, A-); it says nothing about running through pain in training.
Every other overuse pain, and any layoff: practice. Restart at roughly half the previous volume of the running that hurt, easy first, intensity last, one change at a time, each step held while the pain rule is met (SYNTH-36; SYNTH-73). No criteria-based return protocol has been tested for the Achilles, the knee, the shin, the heel, the hip or the hamstring origin — say so.
After the return, no big single jump. One observational cohort of 5,205 runners put more overuse injuries in a single run more than about 10% longer than the longest of the previous 30 days (HRR 1.64 for >10-30% longer) and none in the week-to-week change (REF-1102, B+): a risk marker the base keeps as practice, not a safe line — across 36 prospective studies no training parameter or recent change in one was consistently linked to injury (REF-1367, A-), and no risk model predicts who gets hurt (REF-1387, A-).After a layoff the 30-day window can still hold the pre-layoff long run, so the pain rule and SYNTH-36 pace the return, not the 10% figure (inference; SYNTH-29). A previously injured site gets the slowest ramp (inference from a risk factor, REF-1387; REF-564, A-).

Keeping fitness while running is out

Offer a pain-free substitute; the base holds no fitness study in injured runners. In healthy runners: 16 trained men on deep-water running kept VO2max, ventilatory threshold and economy over 6 weeks like their treadmill-matched partners (REF-922, B); 11 competitive runners who ran only in deep water for 4 weeks held 5-km treadmill time (1142.7 vs 1149.8 s; REF-923, B, no control); across 7 small, mostly old randomised trials running-only and cycling-only training did not differ significantly, and adding or substituting cycling left 1-mile to 5,000-m times unchanged (g 0.02, 95% CI −0.62 to 0.66) — "no clear differences", not interchangeability (REF-1368, A-).All transfer to the injured.
Keep some intensity in it. In general populations endurance held for up to 15 weeks on 2 sessions a week or 33-66% less volume, provided intensity was kept (REF-587, B+, narrative). Inference: keep the hard sessions on the pain-free modality.
Pick the substitute by what does not hurt. For a bone stress injury the leading group recommends cross-training (REF-1383); for the Achilles the guideline lists swimming, cycling, a cross-trainer or walking above the heel and swimming or cycling at the heel bone (REF-1380, expert opinion). Cycling damages muscle far less than running (PHYS-22, established), so it is usually the easier load (inference).
Keep the strength work that does not provoke the pain (SYNTH-44; practice).

Prevention — what has trial support, what did not, and the load rules

Worked, in one trial: a supervised hip-and-core programme. Eight strength and control exercises for 20-35 min before runs, twice a week with a physiotherapist, for 24 weeks, lowered the hazard of a first lower-limb complaint against static stretching (HR 0.66, 95% CI 0.45-0.97) and the weekly prevalence of overuse injuries by 39% (PRR 0.61, 0.39-0.96) in 325 adult novices, three quarters of them women (REF-1384, A: one trial, self-reported injuries, efficacy under supervision; unsupervised, in men or in experienced runners untested).
Worked, in one trial: soft-landing retraining. Two weeks of real-time visual feedback to land more softly was followed by 16% vs 38% injured over 12 months in 320 novices (HR 0.38, 0.25-0.59; REF-1119, B+); two reviews find it the only knee-prevention method with a positive runner trial — that same trial (knee RR 0.32, 0.16-0.63, low certainty, REF-1393, A-; new kneecap pain RR 0.21, 0.07-0.60, REF-1386, A-).It needed an instrumented treadmill; whether a cue alone works is untested.
Did not work: an ankle-and-foot programme. In the same trial, supervised ankle-and-foot work showed no evidence of a difference for overuse injuries (PRR 0.83, 0.55-1.25) and went with more acute injuries, mostly thigh and calf strains during intervals and hills (23 vs 4; HR 3.60, 1.20-10.86) (REF-1384, a secondary outcome). "Any strength routine" is not what the evidence shows.
Did not work: light, mostly unsupervised routines. Pooled across 9 randomised trials in 1,904 runners, injury risk and rate showed no evidence of a difference (risk ratio about 0.81, interval including no effect; REF-1244, A-); a self-directed 10-minute programme in 720 first-time marathoners, 7.1% vs 7.3% (REF-924, A-).In general sport strength programmes cut injuries (RR 0.315; 25 trials, 26,610 people) and stretching did not (RR 0.963) (REF-861, A-) — not runners.
Did not work: online risk-factor advice. In 2,378 runners entered for 5 km to marathon events, a website of risk-factor information and advice left injuries unchanged, 37.5% vs 36.7% (OR 1.08, 0.90-1.29); only 62.7% read any of it (REF-1385, A).The assistant gives the same kind of risk-factor advice, so it cannot promise prevention (inference); what failed here was a static website read alone. Whether tailored, conversational advice does better is untested in the base.
Did not work: shoes. No shoe type reliably reduced running injuries in 12 trials with 11,240 runners, and prescribing shoes by foot posture did not work (REF-716, A); in 17 runner trials footwear options, multicomponent exercise, graduated running programmes and education did not change knee injury risk (RR range 0.55-1.06, REF-1393).In 848 recreational runners a hard midsole raised injury risk (SHR 1.52), the cushioning benefit seen only in lighter runners (REF-621, A) — a reason not to pick the hardest shoe, not a prevention promise.A 10-week "gradual" switch to minimalist shoes was followed by more bone marrow oedema on MRI in 10 of 19 runners (REF-715, B+) — a marker, not an injury (PHYS-44, established; the principle is stated for blood and device markers and applied to imaging here).
Did not work: a 10%-a-week rule. A graded 13-week programme built on it left 20.8% of 532 novices injured against 20.3% on a standard 8-week one (REF-925, A); a 10% and a 24% weekly increase carried the same risk (REF-565, B+).
For runners who sprint: programmes including the Nordic hamstring exercise halved hamstring injuries across several sports (RR 0.49; REF-766, A); not shown for endurance overuse pain.
Who is at risk, and what that does not license. A previous injury is the best-supported warning sign and no risk model works (REF-1387, A-).Sex changes which injury, not how many: 20.8 vs 20.4 injuries per 100 women and men (RR 0.99, 0.90-1.10), with bone stress injuries about twice as common in women and Achilles tendinopathy about twice as common in men (RR 1.86, 1.25-2.79, 2 studies) (REF-1388, A-).Triad-related factors add up for bone (REF-1392, B): fuelling the training and keeping periods are what a runner can act on (inference; SYNTH-54; REF-341, A).
The honest status of load rules. No weekly percentage has held up (REF-925; REF-565).The single-run figure — no run more than about 10% longer than the longest of the past 30 days — comes from one observational cohort (REF-1102, B+) and is kept as the base's practice and a risk marker, never a safe line; across 36 prospective studies distance, duration, frequency, intensity and recent changes in them were not consistently linked to injury (REF-1367, A-).A load rule is a way to avoid an obvious jump, not a guarantee.

Key Findings — what the evidence shows

1

Which bone matters. Pooled return-to-sport times ran from 44 days (posteromedial tibia) to 127 (navicular), more than 90% returned, and complications clustered at the femoral neck, navicular, anterior tibial shaft and fifth metatarsal (REF-1379, A-, 76 studies, abstract).

2

Bone returns symptom-free in the practice of the leading bone group (REF-1383, C+) and in the tibial scoping review (REF-3498, C+): pain during activity means overload. Neither is a tested protocol.

3

The Achilles default is a swap, then a slow rebuild. The national guideline starts with education, a temporary swap of the provoking load, a gradual return under a pain scale and at least 12 weeks of calf strengthening, and gives months as the time frame; nearly all of it is its working group's expert opinion (REF-1380, A). Continued running within a pain model showed no evidence of a difference from rest in one trial of 38, not a non-inferiority test (REF-628, B+).

4

Runner's knee: exercise with education first. Knee-targeted exercise had high-certainty short-term evidence (SMD 1.16), not in runners specifically (REF-1381, A-); in runners, education alone did as well as education plus exercise or gait retraining (REF-917, B+), and several treatments cut short-term pain at low certainty (REF-1393, A-).

5

Heel pain: taping, plantar-fascia stretching, education. One moderate trial each, no runner subgroup; strengthening untested at the guide's bar (REF-1382, A-; REF-920, A-).

6

The hip and sit-bone tendons. For gluteal tendinopathy, education plus exercise beat an injection and wait-and-see in 204 non-runners (REF-1390, A); for proximal hamstring tendinopathy nothing is proven (REF-1389, B+).

7

A hamstring strain can be rehabilitated through mild pain. Up to 4/10 during rehabilitation did not slow clearance and kept more strength in 43 men (REF-1391, A-).

8

Prevention is programme-specific. A supervised hip-and-core programme lowered injuries and an ankle-and-foot programme did not (REF-1384, A); soft-landing retraining had one positive trial (REF-1119, B+); light routines, online advice, shoes and a 10%-a-week programme did not prevent injury (REF-1244, REF-1385, REF-716, REF-925).

9

Risk markers are not a risk score. Previous injury leads (REF-1387, A-); sex shifts the injury type (REF-1388, A-); triad factors add up for bone (REF-1392, B); load parameters are not consistently linked to injury (REF-1367, A-).

It does not show: a tested return-to-running protocol for any injury; a safe pain number during running outside one Achilles trial; that any load rule is safe; that an injured runner keeps fitness on a substitute; that the hip-and-core programme works unsupervised, in men or in experienced runners; anything on calf strains, inner-knee pain, chronic exertional compartment syndrome or running and knee arthritis; or which runner will get hurt.

Conflicts and how they are resolved

The ≤3/10 pain rule and bone. SYNTH-36 gave the tendon ceiling in the same bullet as the tibial bone-stress return; REF-1383 and REF-3498 say bone loading should be symptom-free. Resolved: bone returns symptom-free during, after and the next day; ≤3/10 is the house rule for tendon and other overuse pain (practice); folded into SYNTH-36.
Keep running with Achilles pain? SYNTH-73's default was "may keep training under the pain-monitoring model"; the guideline's first step is a temporary swap of the provoking load (REF-1380). Both use a pain scale. Resolved: swap first and rebuild under a pain scale; running inside the limit, no worse next morning, is compatible (REF-628); folded into SYNTH-73.
Runner's knee: exercise therapy or education alone? The best-practice guide puts knee-targeted exercise first (REF-1381, not runner-specific, short term); the one runner trial found education alone as good (REF-917, 69 runners). Resolved: give both; the clinician's usual first line is exercise with education; folded into SYNTH-73's knee row.
Heel raises. SYNTH-73 said they were worth asking about (REF-920, 48 non-runners, ahead at 3 months only); the heel guide's core is taping, plantar-fascia stretching and education, with strengthening untested at its bar (REF-1382). Resolved: core first; heel raises untested, not refuted, a clinician's option; folded into SYNTH-73.
"No large supervised prevention trial in runners." True until REF-1384, whose hip-and-core arm worked and ankle-and-foot arm did not. Resolved: the gap narrows to heavy strength training and to unsupervised, male and experienced runners; programme-specific; folded into SYNTH-44, SYNTH-75 and SYNTH-73.
The 10% single-run figure written as a rule. It rests on one observational cohort (REF-1102); REF-1367 (36 studies) finds no consistent load-injury link and REF-1387 no working risk model. Resolved: kept as the base's practice and a risk marker, never a safe line; folded where guides state it as a rule or a finding.
Four pain numbers. 0/10 for bone (REF-1383), ≤3/10 house practice, ≤4/10 in hamstring-strain rehabilitation (REF-1391), ≤5/10 in the Achilles trial (REF-628) and the guideline's 0-5/10 (REF-1380). Resolved: by tissue; the assistant gives 0 for bone and ≤3/10 elsewhere, quoting the others only as what each study allowed.
Women and bone stress. The meta-analysis shows about twice the risk in women but draws mostly on adolescent and collegiate runners (REF-1388). Resolved (practice, from incidence by sex): weight bone-like pain more heavily in a woman; never quote the size as hers.

Practical Application — how the assistant says it

"It hurts when I run — what now?" Where, since when, and what changed? Pain at one spot on a bone, pain that builds through the run or comes at night, swelling, or pain that changes your stride means no running and a clinician. Otherwise we take out what changed and keep what does not hurt (practice).
"My Achilles hurts every morning — can I keep running?" Swap the running that provokes it for a while — bike, pool or cross-trainer — and build it back under a pain limit: up to 3 out of 10 (the base's practice), settled by the next morning, not creeping up week to week. A physio-led calf programme for at least 12 weeks is the usual first line; full recovery takes months (REF-1380, A guideline, mostly expert opinion; REF-628, B+).
"Could it be a stress fracture? It only hurts a bit." With pain at one spot on the bone, no running until a clinician has seen it; bone comes back only when it is pain-free during, after and the day after loading (REF-1383, C+). The groin, the top of the foot, the front of the shin and the outer edge of the foot need the most care (REF-1379, A-).
"When can I run again after a stress fracture?" That is your clinician's call, on symptoms rather than the calendar. Across studies the average was about six weeks for the posteromedial (inner-back) tibial shaft and about three and a half to four months for the femoral neck or navicular, with wide ranges — averages, not your date (REF-1379, A-).
"Runner's knee." Once a clinician has confirmed it, strengthening for the knee, and the hip if needed, with education is the usual first line (REF-1381, A-); in one trial of runners, education about symptoms and training load did as well on its own (REF-917, B+). Meanwhile, shorter and flatter runs if they do not hurt.
"Does a strength routine prevent injuries?" One kind did in a trial: a supervised hip-and-core routine twice a week cut injuries in new runners by about a third against stretching; a foot-and-ankle routine did not (REF-1384, A). Light home routines showed no clear effect (REF-1244, A-). It is worth doing; it is not a guarantee.
"Do shoes prevent injury?" No shoe type has been shown to (REF-716, A); very hard shoes did worse in lighter runners (REF-621, A). Choose what is comfortable and change models gradually (practice).
"Is the 10% rule safe?" No load rule has been shown to be safe. One large cohort saw more injuries after a single run much longer than anything in the past month (REF-1102, B+); across 36 studies, training load and its changes were not consistently linked to injury (REF-1367, A-). Avoid big single jumps; go by how the body answers.
Say what the base cannot judge: calf strains, inner-knee pain and a swollen knee have no running entry; return protocols outside the tibial bone stress return are practice; say so rather than improvise.

What NOT to do

Name a diagnosis, or infer one from where it hurts (SYNTH-73).
Keep a runner running, or "easy running", on pain at one spot on a bone, or give bone the ≤3/10 rule (REF-1383).
Suggest painkillers to keep training (REF-1383; REF-1380; SYNTH-73).
Promise a return date; quote REF-1379's averages as the athlete's timeline.
Call any load rule, the 10% single-run figure included, safe (REF-1367; REF-1102).
Claim the assistant's advice prevents injury (REF-1385).
Recommend wait-and-see for a tendon: active treatment beat it at 3 months for the Achilles (very low certainty, REF-1380) and education plus exercise beat it for the outer hip in non-runners (REF-1390).
Sell a shoe, orthoses, a brace, gait analysis or a generic strength routine as prevention or cure beyond what the trials show (REF-716; REF-1393; REF-1386; REF-1384).
Prescribe an ankle-and-foot routine on its own before fast running: in the one large trial it went with more acute muscle injuries (REF-1384).
Push a foot-strike change on a runner: users of the online programme's advice to move towards a forefoot strike and minimalist shoes reported more lower-leg injuries (OR 1.74, 1.28-2.37, self-selected users, not randomised; REF-1385; SYNTH-86).
Present a pain-monitoring rule as tested anywhere except the Achilles (REF-628) and hamstring-strain rehabilitation (REF-1391).

Evidence gaps

Return to running: no tested criteria-based protocol for any injury; the tibial criteria are compiled from level IV evidence (REF-3498); the bone load rule is practice (REF-1383).
Pain limits: a tested limit during running exists only for the Achilles (one trial, REF-628); nothing for the knee, shin, heel, outer knee or hip.
Cross-training in injured runners: no fitness-retention study; all substitution data are from healthy runners (REF-922, REF-923, REF-1368).
Proximal hamstring tendinopathy and calf strain: no rehabilitation trial, no return study (REF-1389; no calf entry).
Outer knee, inner shin and heel in runners: one 2012 review (REF-919), one 2012 trial without an untreated arm (REF-975), and heel trials mostly in non-athletes (REF-1382, REF-920).
Bone stress: return times for sites beyond the four in REF-1379's abstract, the pelvis and sacrum, imaging grades, and the 2025 consensus statements (abstract-only in the base, REF-3497); no prospective bone-risk data in men or adult recreational women.
Prevention: heavy strength training untested; the hip-and-core programme untested unsupervised, in men and in experienced runners (REF-1384); tailored, conversational advice untested in the base (REF-1385).
Footwear: drop, rotation and pronation trials are not in the base; super shoes and bone stress injury have biomechanics only (REF-724, C+).
Not in the base at all: medial knee pain, chronic exertional compartment syndrome, running and knee osteoarthritis, the three American physical-therapy practice guidelines for Achilles, knee and heel pain.

Limitations

Transfer. The Achilles, knee and heel guides are written for patients in general, the gluteal trial is in middle-aged and older women, the hamstring trial in team-sport men and the triad cohort in young women of many sports; runners are the sample only in the prevention trials, the risk reviews (REF-1387, REF-1388, REF-1367), REF-917, REF-919 and REF-1102, while REF-628 and REF-975 are patients and athletes who ran.
Expert opinion inside high levels. REF-1380 is level A as a guideline while its loading advice, timings and pain numbers are expert opinion; REF-1381's retraining and taping and REF-1382's education were never adequately tested.
Abstract-only: REF-1379, REF-1383, REF-1392, REF-1393, REF-3497 and REF-1102 (the last is open access but its entry is still read from the abstract); their methods and some numbers could not be checked.
Self-reported injuries in every prevention trial and cohort; REF-1384 is one trial whose primary interval reaches 0.97.
Errors in the sources: REF-1380's prognosis figures differ between its recommendation and its graded conclusions; REF-1381 calls its dextrose combination knee-targeted in one place and hip-and-knee in another; REF-1387's table and text disagree on previous running injury in short-distance runners; REF-1388 reports its distance moderator in both directions and differs from its abstract on study counts; REF-1390's abstract prints two signs wrong; REF-1384's accepted manuscript has an interval that excludes its own estimate.
Interests: two authors of REF-1393 and one of REF-1379 are editors of the journal that published them; three authors of REF-1382 ran trials it evaluated; one working-group member of REF-1380 had conference travel paid by an imaging firm and its chair research funding that included GE Healthcare; REF-1367's corresponding author lists a running clinic. No shoe, brace, orthosis or device maker funded any cited entry as far as their records could be read.
Practice, not evidence: the order of questions; the red-flag list as a screen, the pelvis and sacrum among the sites, and every "clinician now if" cell without a source; every "may keep doing" cell without a source; the ≤3/10 ceiling; the two-week rule; the return steps outside bone; the half-volume restart; the choice of substitute; the slowest ramp at a previously injured site; the single-run figure as a rule.
Created 2026-10-28: new framework for the runner's side of pain and overuse injury, the coverage audit's worst gap rate, built from the batch REF-1379 to REF-1393 (owner-approved; checked against the drafts after their verifier's 34 corrections) with REF-628, REF-626, REF-624, REF-1148, REF-1149, REF-917, REF-975, REF-920, REF-919, REF-1119, REF-1244, REF-924, REF-861, REF-766, REF-716, REF-621, REF-715, REF-564, REF-343, REF-341, REF-622, REF-3497, REF-3498, REF-892, REF-922, REF-923, REF-1368, REF-587, REF-620, REF-925, REF-565, REF-1102, REF-1367, REF-1022 to REF-1025, REF-724, REF-529 and PHYS-22, PHYS-23, PHYS-37, PHYS-38, PHYS-44.It takes the detail of SYNTH-73's runner rows; folds the same day settle five conflicts — bone returns symptom-free in SYNTH-36, the Achilles default swaps the provoking load first and the knee, heel and red-flag lines follow the new guides in SYNTH-73, the "no large supervised trial" gaps in SYNTH-44, SYNTH-75 and SYNTH-73 narrow to the hip-and-core programme, and the 10% single-run figure is labelled one cohort's risk marker beside REF-1367 and REF-1387 wherever a guide states it as a rule or a finding. 13 decision rows; level B-.
How this entry was checked and changed
Why this level

(the direction of each first-line step rests on guideline-level sources and trials: the Achilles guideline REF-1380 (A, whose own GRADE conclusions are low to very low and whose loading advice, 12 weeks and pain numbers are its working group's expert opinion), the patellofemoral best-practice guide REF-1381 (A-, high certainty only for short-term pain with knee-targeted exercise), the plantar heel pain guide REF-1382 (A-, its education and load parts untested), the bone-site review REF-1379 (A-, abstract), the gluteal tendinopathy trial REF-1390 (A, not runners), the hamstring-strain trial REF-1391 (A-, 43 men), the one runner trial of pain-monitored running REF-628 (B+, 38 patients) and the prevention trials REF-1384 (A), REF-1385 (A), REF-1119 (B+) with the reviews REF-1393 REF-1386 REF-1244 (A-). Above C+ because that direction is what this evidence says; below B because the bone return rule is a C+ commentary REF-1383 and a C+ scoping review REF-3498, no criteria-based return-to-running protocol has been tested for any injury, several rows transfer from non-runners, and the triage order, the red-flag list as a screen, the ≤3/10 ceiling, the two-week escalation and every return step outside bone are practice)