REF-1453 · Klitzke Borszcz et al., 2019 · International Journal of Sports Physiology and Performance · Paper · PubMed

Is FTP the same as MLSS?

In 15 cyclists the average bias was 1.4%, but one rider could miss by ±9.2% (±11.8% in the less trained). Fair for a group, rough for one person. Small; abstract only.

Main caveat: Small sample, subgroups of 7 and 8; limits of agreement from such samples are themselves imprecise.
limited, mixed evidenceMeasured on trained to highly trained athletes

Klitzke Borszcz, Ferreira Tramontin and Pereira Costa asked whether FTP, taken as 95% of average power in a 20-min time trial, predicts MLSS. Fifteen cyclists did an incremental test to exhaustion, an FTP test and several constant-load tests to determine MLSS. For power, bias ± 95% limits of agreement were 1.4% ± 9.2%, typical error of the estimate 4.7%, r = .91.

By level: trained 1.4% ± 11.8% (typical error 6.4%), well trained 1.3% ± 7.4% (3.0%). For heart rate: −1.4% ± 8.2%, typical error 4.0%, r = .80. The authors conclude that trained and well-trained cyclists "can use FTP as a noninvasive and practical alternative to estimate MLSS". Our reading: at group level the agreement is good, and the authors' conclusion rests on that.

For one rider the limits reach roughly a tenth either side (the abstract does not say percent of what). This sits awkwardly beside REF-1325 (B), where MLSS was 93.1 ± 5.1% of FTP in 18 riders, a mean gap of about 7% (our arithmetic), with FTP minus MLSS from −8 to +51 W. Both are small validations, and neither settles the average.

What they share is the width of the individual error.

Protocol

Participants: n = 15 cyclists, 7 trained and 8 well trained; VO2max 62.3 ± 6.4 mL/kg/min; maximal aerobic power 329 ± 30 W.
Tests: incremental to exhaustion; FTP as 95% of the average power of a 20-min time trial; several constant-load tests to determine MLSS.
Analysis: bias ± 95% limits of agreement, typical error of the estimate, Pearson correlation.
Funding and interests: none stated in the PubMed or Crossref record.

Key Results

Comparison with MLSSBias ± 95% LoATypical errorr
Power, all (n = 15)1.4% ± 9.2%4.7%.91
Power, trained (7)1.4% ± 11.8%6.4%not given
Power, well trained (8)1.3% ± 7.4%3.0%not given
Heart rate, all−1.4% ± 8.2%4.0%.80

Mechanisms

Measured: small mean bias with wide individual limits; wider in the less trained subgroup.
Authors' interpretation: FTP is an acceptable practical substitute for MLSS in trained and well-trained cyclists.
Inference: a mean bias near zero can hide riders on both sides of MLSS, so a target set just below FTP lies above MLSS for some riders and well below it for others.

Practical Application

Is FTP the same as MLSS? In 15 cyclists the average bias was 1.4%, but one rider could miss by ±9.2% (±11.8% in the less trained). Fair for a group, rough for one person. Small; abstract only.
For one rider's session target: treat a percentage of FTP as a starting guess. Not from this paper; the base's own practice: judge by feel and lactate rather than a fraction of FTP (REF-137), and by heart-rate drift (SYNTH-27), and prefer a CP-anchored boundary (SYNTH-27). The band coaches call sweet spot is a coaching convention with no trial in the base (SYNTH-27), and this study did not test it.
What it does not show: which direction FTP errs for a given rider, a result in women or lower-level riders, or the time a rider can hold FTP (REF-747, B).

Limitations

Small sample, subgroups of 7 and 8; limits of agreement from such samples are themselves imprecise.
Abstract only; MLSS criteria, testing order, pacing and sex are not spelled out.
Sign of bias undefined in the abstract.
Authors' conclusion weights the mean over the individual error.
Conflicts with [REF-1325] on the mean gap, unresolved here.
Funding and interests: not stated in the record.
How this entry was checked and changed
Why this level

(from the abstract) — the rubric's B for a test validation study, lowered a step as an abstract-only small study with key methods missing (MLSS criteria, testing order, pacing, sex split), as the base does for REF-1256 and REF-1258; the agreement statistics themselves are in the abstract